Pobla Mafumet 2–0 Granollers: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granollers

Guzmán 90+3'

Óscar Gómez 30'

1/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pobla Mafumet43%

×Draw27%

Granollers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchGranollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Pobla Mafumet

1.38

Granollers

1.13

Pobla Mafumet creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

1.36

creates per match

1.44

0.81

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Granollers

1.44

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Granollers

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Granollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Granollers →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

69%

Pobla Mafumet or Granollers

73%

Draw or Granollers

57%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

20%

Granollers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

75%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

40%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

16%

Granollers 1+ goals

68%

Granollers 2+ goals

31%

Granollers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

58%

Granollers (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Granollers away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Granollers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Granollers attack 1.44 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

43%

level

27%

Granollers scores more

31%

Pobla Mafumet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Óscar Gómez

46'

Marc Fuentes← Marc Muñoz

58'

Guzmán← Óscar Gómez

59'

Aitor García← Ayub El Harrak

66'

Jordi Avilés← Iván Amoedo

66'

Lorca← Albert Querol

68'

Juanpi Sepúlveda← Jandro

73'

Óscar Romero← Marc Montalvo

73'

Álvaro Caro← Sergi Quiros

90+3'

Guzmán

Pobla

Granollers

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Gómez

Manager: Adolfo Baines

58'▲Guzmán←▼Óscar Gómez

66'▲Jordi Avilés←▼Iván Amoedo

66'▲Lorca←▼Albert Querol

73'▲Óscar Romero←▼Marc Montalvo

73'▲Álvaro Caro←▼Sergi Quiros

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GuzmánAvilésLorcaRomeroCaro

Manager: José Solivelles

46'▲Marc Fuentes←▼Marc Muñoz

59'▲Aitor García←▼Ayub El Harrak

68'▲Juanpi Sepúlveda←▼Jandro

Granollers substitutes

FuentesGarcíaSepúlveda

Match Recap: Pobla Mafumet vs Granollers

Pobla Mafumet beat Granollers 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 2, 2022.

Goals: Óscar Gómez (30'), Guzmán (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet in La Pobla de Mafumet.

Pobla Mafumet vs Granollers — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pobla Mafumet vs Granollers