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Pobeda vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. — Second League - Group 1 2020

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
9/22/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pobeda41%
×Draw29%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.22
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.02

Pobeda creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.31
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
0.81

allows per match

Pobeda
1.22
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
1.13

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
69%
Pobeda or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
71%
Draw or Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.
59%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
18%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
70%
Pobeda 2+ goals
34%
Pobeda 3+ goals
12%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 1+ goals
64%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 2+ goals
27%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
57%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.31 + Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. attack 0.81 + Pobeda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pobeda scores more
41%
level
29%
Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. scores more
31%

Pobeda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pobeda vs Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht.

Stroitel Kamensk-Shakht. beat Pobeda 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt in Khasavyurt.