Pobeda 3–1 Sochi II: Result & Stats

Pobeda

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sochi II

6/14/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Pobeda40%

×Draw26%

Sochi II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PobedaExpected goals in this matchSochi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.23

Pobeda

1.38

Sochi II

1.23

Pobeda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

1.31

creates per match

1.25

1.22

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Pobeda

1.31

Sochi II

1.25

allows per match

Pobeda

1.22

Sochi II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par

Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Sochi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw

67%

Pobeda or Sochi II

74%

Draw or Sochi II

60%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+

19%

Sochi II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals

75%

Pobeda 2+ goals

40%

Pobeda 3+ goals

16%

Sochi II 1+ goals

71%

Sochi II 2+ goals

35%

Sochi II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)

55%

Sochi II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.31 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Pobeda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pobeda scores more

40%

level

26%

Sochi II scores more

33%

Pobeda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff