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Pobeda vs Skopje — Second League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Skopje
Skopje
11/12/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Goce Delčev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pobeda29%
×Draw26%
Skopje44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.10
Skopje
1.42

Skopje creates 29% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.15
Skopje
1.15

allows per match

Pobeda
1.70
Skopje
1.06

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
56%
Pobeda or Skopje
74%
Draw or Skopje
71%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
11%
Skopje wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
67%
Pobeda 2+ goals
30%
Pobeda 3+ goals
10%
Skopje 1+ goals
76%
Skopje 2+ goals
41%
Skopje 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
40%
Skopje (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Skopje away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Skopje defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.10

Skopje attack 1.15 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pobeda scores more
29%
level
26%
Skopje scores more
44%

Skopje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pobeda 1 – 0 Skopje

Pobeda beat Skopje 1-0 in Second League on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Goce Delčev in Prilep.