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Pobeda vs Rosoman — Second League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
3 – 1
Rosoman
Rosoman
5/1/2021Second LeagueSecond League · East - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Pobeda60%
×Draw19%
Rosoman20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
2.33
Rosoman
1.28

Pobeda creates 82% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 14 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.15
Rosoman
0.86

allows per match

Pobeda
1.70
Rosoman
3.50

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Rosoman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Rosoman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
80%
Pobeda or Rosoman
81%
Draw or Rosoman
40%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
39%
Rosoman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
90%
Pobeda 2+ goals
67%
Pobeda 3+ goals
41%
Rosoman 1+ goals
72%
Rosoman 2+ goals
37%
Rosoman 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
75%
Rosoman (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Rosoman away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Rosoman defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Rosoman attack 0.86 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pobeda scores more
60%
level
19%
Rosoman scores more
20%

Pobeda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pobeda 3–1 Rosoman

Pobeda beat Rosoman 3-1 in Second League on May 1, 2021.