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Pobeda vs Renova — First League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
2 – 3
Renova
Renova
3/16/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Goce Delčev (Prilep)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Pobeda26%
×Draw25%
Renova49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.06
Renova
1.56

Renova creates 47% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 52 away

creates per match

Pobeda
0.70
Renova
1.19

allows per match

Pobeda
1.93
Renova
1.42

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Renova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
51%
Pobeda or Renova
75%
Draw or Renova
74%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
10%
Renova wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
65%
Pobeda 2+ goals
29%
Pobeda 3+ goals
9%
Renova 1+ goals
79%
Renova 2+ goals
46%
Renova 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
35%
Renova (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.93 · 27 matches

Renova away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 0.70 + Renova defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.06

Renova attack 1.19 + Pobeda defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pobeda scores more
26%
level
25%
Renova scores more
49%

Renova at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pobeda 2 – 3 Renova

Renova beat Pobeda 3-2 in First League on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Goce Delčev (Prilep).