Pobeda 0–0 Plačkovica: Result & Stats

Pobeda

FT

0 – 0

Plačkovica

9/19/2020

Second League · East - 4Stadion Mogila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Pobeda44%

×Draw24%

Plačkovica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PobedaExpected goals in this matchPlačkovica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.32

Pobeda

1.60

Plačkovica

1.32

Pobeda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 22 away

1.15

creates per match

0.95

1.70

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Pobeda

1.15

Plačkovica

0.95

allows per match

Pobeda

1.70

Plačkovica

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par

Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Plačkovica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw

68%

Pobeda or Plačkovica

76%

Draw or Plačkovica

56%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+

22%

Plačkovica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals

80%

Pobeda 2+ goals

47%

Pobeda 3+ goals

22%

Plačkovica 1+ goals

73%

Plačkovica 2+ goals

38%

Plačkovica 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)

58%

Plačkovica (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Plačkovica defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Plačkovica attack 0.95 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pobeda scores more

44%

level

24%

Plačkovica scores more

32%

Pobeda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff