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Pobeda vs Pehchevo — Second League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
4 – 1
Pehchevo
Pehchevo
8/22/2020Second LeagueSecond League · East - 1Stadion Mogila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Pobeda33%
×Draw26%
Pehchevo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.23
Pehchevo
1.41

Pehchevo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.15
Pehchevo
1.11

allows per match

Pobeda
1.70
Pehchevo
1.31

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Pehchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Pehchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
59%
Pobeda or Pehchevo
74%
Draw or Pehchevo
67%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
14%
Pehchevo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
71%
Pobeda 2+ goals
35%
Pobeda 3+ goals
13%
Pehchevo 1+ goals
76%
Pehchevo 2+ goals
41%
Pehchevo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
44%
Pehchevo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Pehchevo away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Pehchevo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pehchevo attack 1.11 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pobeda scores more
33%
level
26%
Pehchevo scores more
41%

Pehchevo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pehchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pobeda vs Pehchevo

Pobeda beat Pehchevo 4-1 in Second League on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mogila in Prilep.