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Pobeda vs Ohrid — Second League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ohrid
Ohrid
9/28/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 6Stadion Goce Delčev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pobeda34%
×Draw27%
Ohrid39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.21
Ohrid
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 80 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.15
Ohrid
0.93

allows per match

Pobeda
1.70
Ohrid
1.26

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Ohrid+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Ohrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
61%
Pobeda or Ohrid
73%
Draw or Ohrid
66%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
14%
Ohrid wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
70%
Pobeda 2+ goals
34%
Pobeda 3+ goals
12%
Ohrid 1+ goals
73%
Ohrid 2+ goals
38%
Ohrid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
47%
Ohrid (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Ohrid away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Ohrid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ohrid attack 0.93 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pobeda scores more
34%
level
27%
Ohrid scores more
39%

Ohrid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ohrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pobeda 0 – 1 Ohrid

Ohrid beat Pobeda 1-0 in Second League on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Goce Delčev in Prilep.