Pobeda 0–2 Legion Dynamo: Result & Stats

Pobeda

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Legion Dynamo

8/10/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pobeda35%

×Draw27%

Legion Dynamo38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PobedaExpected goals in this matchLegion Dynamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.30

Pobeda

1.25

Legion Dynamo

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

1.31

creates per match

1.39

1.22

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Pobeda

1.31

Legion Dynamo

1.39

allows per match

Pobeda

1.22

Legion Dynamo

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par

Legion Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Legion Dynamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw

62%

Pobeda or Legion Dynamo

73%

Draw or Legion Dynamo

65%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+

15%

Legion Dynamo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals

71%

Pobeda 2+ goals

36%

Pobeda 3+ goals

13%

Legion Dynamo 1+ goals

73%

Legion Dynamo 2+ goals

37%

Legion Dynamo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)

48%

Legion Dynamo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Legion Dynamo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.31 + Legion Dynamo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Legion Dynamo attack 1.39 + Pobeda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pobeda scores more

35%

level

27%

Legion Dynamo scores more

38%

Legion Dynamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Legion Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff