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Pobeda vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
10/20/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pobeda33%
×Draw27%
Kuban Kholding40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.14
Kuban Kholding
1.29

Kuban Kholding creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 91 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.31
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Pobeda
1.22
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
60%
Pobeda or Kuban Kholding
73%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
67%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
13%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
68%
Pobeda 2+ goals
32%
Pobeda 3+ goals
11%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
72%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
37%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
45%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.31 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Pobeda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pobeda scores more
33%
level
27%
Kuban Kholding scores more
40%

Kuban Kholding at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kuban Kholding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pobeda vs Kuban Kholding

Kuban Kholding beat Pobeda 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Khasavyurt.