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Pobeda vs Dinamo Stavropol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Stavropol
Dinamo Stavropol
11/2/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pobeda40%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Stavropol34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.35
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

Pobeda creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 92 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.31
Dinamo Stavropol
1.22

allows per match

Pobeda
1.22
Dinamo Stavropol
1.39

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Dinamo Stavropol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Dinamo Stavropol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
66%
Pobeda or Dinamo Stavropol
73%
Draw or Dinamo Stavropol
60%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Stavropol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
74%
Pobeda 2+ goals
39%
Pobeda 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Stavropol 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Stavropol 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Stavropol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
54%
Dinamo Stavropol (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Dinamo Stavropol away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.31 + Dinamo Stavropol defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo Stavropol attack 1.22 + Pobeda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pobeda scores more
40%
level
27%
Dinamo Stavropol scores more
34%

Pobeda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pobeda vs Dinamo Stavropol

Pobeda beat Dinamo Stavropol 4-0 in Second League - Group 1 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt in Khasavyurt.