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Pobeda vs Aresimi — Second League 2019

Pobeda
Pobeda
FT
1 – 2
Aresimi
Aresimi
9/25/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 4Stadion Goce Delčev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pobeda29%
×Draw25%
Aresimi47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pobeda
1.19
Aresimi
1.59

Aresimi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pobeda
1.15
Aresimi
1.49

allows per match

Pobeda
1.70
Aresimi
1.24

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par
Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Aresimi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw
53%
Pobeda or Aresimi
75%
Draw or Aresimi
71%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+
12%
Aresimi wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals
70%
Pobeda 2+ goals
33%
Pobeda 3+ goals
12%
Aresimi 1+ goals
80%
Aresimi 2+ goals
47%
Aresimi 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)
38%
Aresimi (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.15 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aresimi attack 1.49 + Pobeda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pobeda scores more
29%
level
25%
Aresimi scores more
47%

Aresimi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aresimi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Pobeda 1–2 Aresimi

Aresimi beat Pobeda 2-1 in Second League on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Goce Delčev in Prilep.