Pobeda 2–3 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II: Result & Stats

Pobeda

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

8/19/2023

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Anzhi Sports Complex pole 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pobeda57%

×Draw23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PobedaExpected goals in this matchAlaniya Vladikavkaz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.00

Pobeda

1.86

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

1.00

Pobeda creates 86% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 58 away

1.31

creates per match

0.78

1.22

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Pobeda

1.31

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

0.78

allows per match

Pobeda

1.22

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobeda+0.00on par

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobeda ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pobeda or draw

80%

Pobeda or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

77%

Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

43%

Winning margin

Pobeda wins by 2+

33%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Pobeda 1+ goals

84%

Pobeda 2+ goals

55%

Pobeda 3+ goals

28%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals

63%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals

26%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pobeda (draw refunded)

74%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pobeda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pobeda attack 1.31 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.86

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Pobeda defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Pobeda scores more

57%

level

23%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more

20%

Pobeda at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff