Zlin score first in only 33% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 104+ matches
Plzen64%
Zlin15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Plzen creates 137% more chances
Season form · 125 home / 104 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Plzen ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 125 matches
Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Plzen attack 2.26 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.99
Zlin attack 0.79 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Plzen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Plzen have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
- 39% of Zlin’s goals come after the 75th minute
- 28% of Zlin’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
- Style contrast — Plzen play Possession-dominant, Zlin Direct / counter-attacking
- Zlin fall short of their xG (0.8 vs 1.3 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Slavia PrahaPlzen
Sparta Praha
FK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník Ostrava
České Budějovice
Bohemians 1905
Slovácko
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
TepliceZlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Plzen host Zlin on Saturday, 15 August 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Plzen face Zlin (Czech Liga)
Czech Liga returns with Plzen hosting Zlin. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Plzen host Zlin at Doosan Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.