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Plzen vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zlin
Zlin
9/28/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 10Doosan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Plzen64%
×Draw21%
Zlin15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.99
Zlin
0.84

Plzen creates 137% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 104 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.26
Zlin
0.79

allows per match

Plzen
0.89
Zlin
1.72

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Zlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
85%
Plzen or Zlin
79%
Draw or Zlin
36%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
39%
Zlin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
86%
Plzen 2+ goals
59%
Plzen 3+ goals
32%
Zlin 1+ goals
57%
Zlin 2+ goals
21%
Zlin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
81%
Zlin (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 125 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.72 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + Zlin defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.99

Zlin attack 0.79 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Plzen scores more
64%
level
21%
Zlin scores more
15%

Plzen at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Plzen 0–1 Zlin

Zlin beat Plzen 1-0 in Czech Liga on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Doosan Arena in Plzen.