Plzen 2–1 Zlin: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Plzen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zlin

J. Beauguel 84', 6' (pen)

L. Vraštil 15'

10/2/2021

Czech Liga · Round 10Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Plzen63%

×Draw21%

Zlin15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchZlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.85

Plzen

1.97

Zlin

0.85

Plzen creates 132% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 101 away

2.26

creates per match

0.81

0.89

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Plzen

2.26

Zlin

0.81

allows per match

Plzen

0.89

Zlin

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

Zlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Zlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

85%

Plzen or Zlin

79%

Draw or Zlin

37%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

39%

Zlin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

86%

Plzen 2+ goals

58%

Plzen 3+ goals

31%

Zlin 1+ goals

57%

Zlin 2+ goals

21%

Zlin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

80%

Zlin (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 123 matches

Zlin away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.68 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + Zlin defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.97

Zlin attack 0.81 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Plzen scores more

63%

level

21%

Zlin scores more

15%

Plzen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. BeauguelPenalty

15'

L. Vraštil↳ V. Tchanturishvili

18'

45+2'

46'

59'

69'

J. Kayamba← J. Sýkora

69'

D. Janošek← L. Kalvach

70'

M. Nečas← Y. Dramé

78'

L. Jawo← V. Tchanturishvili

82'

A. Čermák← M. Havel

84'

J. Beauguel↳ D. Janošek

86'

M. Fillo← J. Janetzký

86'

L. Hrdlička← T. Poznar

Shots

Statistics

PlzenZlin

Overview

11Total Shots6

5Corners2

17Fouls23

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target2

7Off Target4

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls23

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Plzen 2 – 1 Zlin

Plzen beat Zlin 2-1 in Czech Liga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: J. Beauguel (6' pen, 84'), L. Vraštil (15').

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.

Plzen vs Zlin — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Plzen 2 – 1 Zlin