Jonkopings Sodra 1–0 Dalkurd FF: Result & Stats

Jonkopings Sodra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalkurd FF

4/12/2019

Superettan · Round 3Stadsparksvallen (Jönköping)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra49%

×Draw25%

Dalkurd FF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jonkopings SodraExpected goals in this matchDalkurd FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.09

Jonkopings Sodra

1.59

Dalkurd FF

1.09

Jonkopings Sodra creates 46% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 49 away

1.51

creates per match

0.98

1.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.51

Dalkurd FF

0.98

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.20

Dalkurd FF

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

Dalkurd FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw

74%

Jonkopings Sodra or Dalkurd FF

75%

Draw or Dalkurd FF

51%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

25%

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

80%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

47%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

21%

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals

66%

Dalkurd FF 2+ goals

30%

Dalkurd FF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

65%

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.51 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

49%

level

25%

Dalkurd FF scores more

26%

Jonkopings Sodra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff