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Dalkurd FF vs Jonkopings Sodra — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
10/31/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Round 26Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF41%
×Draw25%
Jonkopings Sodra34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.54
Jonkopings Sodra
1.37

Dalkurd FF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 90 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Jonkopings Sodra
1.30

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Jonkopings Sodra
1.56

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
66%
Dalkurd FF or Jonkopings Sodra
75%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
59%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
20%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
79%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
45%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
20%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
75%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
40%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
55%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
41%
level
25%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
34%

Dalkurd FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Dalkurd FF 1–1 Jonkopings Sodra

Dalkurd FF and Jonkopings Sodra drew 1-1 in Superettan on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.