Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plzen vs Spartak Trnava — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Plzen
Plzen
FT
4 – 1
Spartak Trnava
Spartak Trnava
6/26/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Luční ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Plzen76%
×Draw15%
Spartak Trnava9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.69
Spartak Trnava
0.84

Plzen creates 220% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Plzen
3.26
Spartak Trnava
0.63

allows per match

Plzen
1.05
Spartak Trnava
2.13

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Spartak Trnava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
91%
Plzen or Spartak Trnava
85%
Draw or Spartak Trnava
24%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
55%
Spartak Trnava wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
93%
Plzen 2+ goals
74%
Plzen 3+ goals
49%
Spartak Trnava 1+ goals
57%
Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
21%
Spartak Trnava 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
89%
Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 3.26, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 3.26 + Spartak Trnava defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.69

Spartak Trnava attack 0.63 + Plzen defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Plzen scores more
76%
level
15%
Spartak Trnava scores more
9%

Plzen at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plzen vs Spartak Trnava

Plzen beat Spartak Trnava 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Luční ulice in Plzeň.