Plzen 2–0 Pardubice: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Plzen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pardubice

P. Bucha 90+3'

M. Havel 79'

1/24/2021

Czech Liga · Round 16Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plzen57%

×Draw21%

Pardubice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchPardubice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.17

Plzen

2.05

Pardubice

1.17

Plzen creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.23

creates per match

0.99

1.34

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Plzen

2.23

Pardubice

0.99

allows per match

Plzen

1.34

Pardubice

1.88

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.27scores more

Pardubice+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Pardubice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

79%

Plzen or Pardubice

79%

Draw or Pardubice

43%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

35%

Pardubice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

87%

Plzen 2+ goals

61%

Plzen 3+ goals

33%

Pardubice 1+ goals

69%

Pardubice 2+ goals

33%

Pardubice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

73%

Pardubice (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

Pardubice away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.88 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.23 + Pardubice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.05

Pardubice attack 0.99 + Plzen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plzen scores more

57%

level

21%

Pardubice scores more

21%

Plzen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Martin Šejvl

61'

L. Matějka← J. Kovařík

64'

J. Sláma← P. Černý

72'

O. Mihálik← J. Kayamba

72'

D. Ba Loua← P. Šulc

79'

M. Havel

82'

M. Petráň← D. Huf

82'

Lee Sang-Hyeok← Ewerton

90+3'

P. Bucha↳ D. Ba Loua

Shots

Statistics

PlzenPardubice

Overview

14Total Shots2

8Corners0

9Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots2

5On Target1

9Off Target1

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0

Czech Liga: Plzen 2–0 Pardubice

Plzen beat Pardubice 2-0 in Czech Liga on January 24, 2021.

Goals: M. Havel (79'), P. Bucha (90+3').

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.

Plzen vs Pardubice — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Czech Liga: Plzen 2–0 Pardubice