Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pardubice vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Pardubice
Pardubice
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Plzen
Plzen
7/18/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1Stadion Arnosta Kostala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Pardubice31%
×Draw27%
Plzen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pardubice
1.13
Plzen
1.38

Plzen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 119 away

creates per match

Pardubice
1.16
Plzen
1.48

allows per match

Pardubice
1.27
Plzen
1.10

finishing

Pardubice+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pardubice ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pardubice or draw
57%
Pardubice or Plzen
73%
Draw or Plzen
69%

Winning margin

Pardubice wins by 2+
12%
Plzen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pardubice 1+ goals
68%
Pardubice 2+ goals
31%
Pardubice 3+ goals
11%
Plzen 1+ goals
75%
Plzen 2+ goals
40%
Plzen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pardubice (draw refunded)
42%
Plzen (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pardubice at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 103 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pardubice attack 1.16 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Plzen attack 1.48 + Pardubice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pardubice scores more
31%
level
27%
Plzen scores more
43%

Plzen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Pardubice 1–5 Plzen

Plzen beat Pardubice 5-1 in Czech Liga on July 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Pardubice.