Plzen 4–0 Gzira United: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Gzira United

8/10/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundDoosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Plzen70%

×Draw25%

Gzira United5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchGzira United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.22

Plzen

1.48

Gzira United

0.22

Plzen creates 573% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.78

creates per match

0.33

0.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Plzen

1.78

Gzira United

0.33

allows per match

Plzen

0.11

Gzira United

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

Gzira United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No85
Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Gzira United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–14%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–027%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–020%

2–14%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (27%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

95%

Plzen or Gzira United

75%

Draw or Gzira United

30%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

38%

Gzira United wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

77%

Plzen 2+ goals

43%

Plzen 3+ goals

19%

Gzira United 1+ goals

20%

Gzira United 2+ goals

2%

Gzira United 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

93%

Gzira United (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

Gzira United away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.78 + Gzira United defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gzira United attack 0.33 + Plzen defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Plzen scores more

70%

level

25%

Gzira United scores more

5%

Plzen at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff