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Plzen vs Erzgebirge AUE — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Plzen
Plzen
CANC
00:00
Erzgebirge AUE
Erzgebirge AUE
7/3/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Luční ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Plzen61%
×Draw19%
Erzgebirge AUE20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.46
Erzgebirge AUE
1.36

Plzen creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Plzen
3.26
Erzgebirge AUE
1.67

allows per match

Plzen
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE
1.67

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
Erzgebirge AUE+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Erzgebirge AUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
80%
Plzen or Erzgebirge AUE
81%
Draw or Erzgebirge AUE
39%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
40%
Erzgebirge AUE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
91%
Plzen 2+ goals
70%
Plzen 3+ goals
44%
Erzgebirge AUE 1+ goals
74%
Erzgebirge AUE 2+ goals
39%
Erzgebirge AUE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
75%
Erzgebirge AUE (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 3.26, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Erzgebirge AUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 3.26 + Erzgebirge AUE defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Erzgebirge AUE attack 1.67 + Plzen defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Plzen scores more
61%
level
19%
Erzgebirge AUE scores more
20%

Plzen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plzen host Erzgebirge AUE

July 3, 2021: Plzen take on Erzgebirge AUE in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plzen host Erzgebirge AUE at Stadion Luční ulice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.