Sogndal 0–1 Nest-Sotra: Result & Stats

Sogndal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nest-Sotra

9/29/2019

1. Division · Round 25Fosshaugane Campus (Sogndal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sogndal46%

×Draw24%

Nest-Sotra30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchNest-Sotra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.29

Sogndal

1.67

Nest-Sotra

1.29

Sogndal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 31 away

1.90

creates per match

1.23

1.34

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sogndal

1.90

Nest-Sotra

1.23

allows per match

Sogndal

1.34

Nest-Sotra

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Nest-Sotra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

70%

Sogndal or Nest-Sotra

76%

Draw or Nest-Sotra

54%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

24%

Nest-Sotra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

81%

Sogndal 2+ goals

50%

Sogndal 3+ goals

23%

Nest-Sotra 1+ goals

72%

Nest-Sotra 2+ goals

37%

Nest-Sotra 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

61%

Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.34 · 128 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.90 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Sogndal defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sogndal scores more

46%

level

24%

Nest-Sotra scores more

30%

Sogndal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff