Plzen 6–0 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bohemians 1905

J. Kayamba 79'

J. Sýkora 64'

P. Bucha 62'

J. Mosquera 36'

J. Kopic 31'

L. Pernica 10'

11/27/2021

Czech Liga · Round 16Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Plzen52%

×Draw23%

Bohemians 190526%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.27

Plzen

1.89

Bohemians 1905

1.27

Plzen creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

2.23

creates per match

1.21

1.34

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Plzen

2.23

Bohemians 1905

1.21

allows per match

Plzen

1.34

Bohemians 1905

1.55

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Plzen+0.27scores more

Bohemians 1905-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

74%

Plzen or Bohemians 1905

77%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

48%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

29%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

85%

Plzen 2+ goals

56%

Plzen 3+ goals

29%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

72%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

36%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

67%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.23 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.21 + Plzen defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Plzen scores more

52%

level

23%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

26%

Plzen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Pernica↳ A. Čermák

31'

J. Kopic↳ J. Mosquera

36'

J. Mosquera↳ P. Bucha

46'

60'

60'

60'

61'

J. Kayamba← J. Mosquera

61'

T. Chorý← J. Beauguel

62'

64'

71'

75'

79'

82'

88'

M. Ugwu← R. Květ

Shots

Statistics

PlzenBohemians

Overview

12Total Shots5

7Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots5

7On Target2

5Off Target3

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2