Bohemians 1905 1–2 Plzen: Result & Stats

Bohemians 1905

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Plzen

D. Vašulín 90+9' (OG)

M. Vydra 48'

P. Šulc 29'

4/13/2025

Czech Liga · Round 29Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bohemians 190546%

×Draw23%

Plzen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bohemians 1905Expected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.40

Bohemians 1905

1.78

Plzen

1.40

Bohemians 1905 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.41

1.40

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Bohemians 1905

1.42

Plzen

1.41

allows per match

Bohemians 1905

1.40

Plzen

2.14

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Bohemians 1905-0.54scores less

Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw

70%

Bohemians 1905 or Plzen

77%

Draw or Plzen

54%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

25%

Plzen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

83%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

53%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

26%

Plzen 1+ goals

75%

Plzen 2+ goals

41%

Plzen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

60%

Plzen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.40 · 16 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.42 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.78

Plzen attack 1.41 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more

46%

level

23%

Plzen scores more

30%

Bohemians 1905 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Červ

Plzen · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

44'

48'

56'

56'

V. Drchal← J. Matoušek

74'

D. Vašulín← R. Durosinmi

77'

Adam Kadlec

77'

Lukáš HůlkaGoal cancelled

77'

89'

89'

90+3'

90+1'

90+1'

P. Kareem← J. Shejbal

90+8'

M. Valenta← P. Šulc

90+9'

D. VašulínOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BohemiansPlzen

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots10

0.94Expected Goals (xG)0.94

2Corners6

11Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots10

1On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box6

1Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

353Total Passes370

267Accurate Passes295

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3

Czech Liga: Bohemians 1905 1–2 Plzen

Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 2-1 in Czech Liga on April 13, 2025.

Goals: P. Šulc (29'), M. Vydra (48'), D. Vašulín (90+9' o.g.).

Plzen controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.

Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Bohemians 1905 1–2 Plzen