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Plzen vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Plzen
Plzen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
5/11/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Championship Round - 3Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plzen59%
×Draw21%
Baník Ostrava20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
2.06
Baník Ostrava
1.12

Plzen creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Plzen
2.22
Baník Ostrava
1.04

allows per match

Plzen
1.20
Baník Ostrava
1.91

finishing

Plzen+0.64scores more
Baník Ostrava-0.04on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
80%
Plzen or Baník Ostrava
79%
Draw or Baník Ostrava
41%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
36%
Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
87%
Plzen 2+ goals
61%
Plzen 3+ goals
34%
Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
67%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
31%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
74%
Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.22 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.06

Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 + Plzen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Plzen scores more
59%
level
21%
Baník Ostrava scores more
20%

Plzen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava

Baník Ostrava beat Plzen 2-1 in Czech Liga on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Doosan Aréna in Plzeň.