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Plzen vs AS Roma — UEFA Champions League 2026

Plzen
Plzen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
T. Chorý 72'
J. Kovařík 62'
C. Ünder 67'
12/12/2018UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 6Doosan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plzen47%
×Draw23%
AS Roma30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plzen
1.81
AS Roma
1.39

Plzen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Plzen
1.62
AS Roma
1.00

allows per match

Plzen
1.77
AS Roma
2.00

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par
AS Roma+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Plzen or draw
70%
Plzen or AS Roma
77%
Draw or AS Roma
53%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+
26%
AS Roma wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals
84%
Plzen 2+ goals
54%
Plzen 3+ goals
27%
AS Roma 1+ goals
75%
AS Roma 2+ goals
40%
AS Roma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)
61%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 1.62 + AS Roma defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

AS Roma attack 1.00 + Plzen defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Plzen scores more
47%
level
23%
AS Roma scores more
30%

Plzen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. ÜnderAS RomaAS Roma · F
7.6

Match Events

22'
David Limberský
59'
N. Zaniolo← J. Pastore
62'
J. Kovařík↳ J. Kopic
67'
C. Ünder↳ D. Santon
71'
M. Petržela← J. Kopic
72'
T. Chorý
75'
A. Florenzi← D. Santon
79'
Justin Kluivert
80'
Luca Pellegrini← S. Nzonzi
82'
T. Hořava← A. Čermák
87'
J. Řezníček← T. Chorý
89'
Luca Pellegrini
90'
Luca Pellegrini
90'
Luca Pellegrini

Possession

37%Plzen

Shots

13Plzen

Pass accuracy

46%Plzen

Statistics

PlzenAS
Overview
37%Possession63%
13Total Shots12
4Corners3
14Fouls17
Shots
13Total Shots12
4On Target4
6Off Target4
3Blocked4
10Inside Box5
3Outside Box7
Passing
37%Possession63%
318Total Passes537
236Accurate Passes469
74%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides2

Plzen 2 – 1 AS Roma

Plzen beat AS Roma 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on December 12, 2018.

Goals: J. Kovařík (62'), C. Ünder (67'), T. Chorý (72').

AS Roma controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Doosan Arena in Plzen.