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Plymouth vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
15:00
Wycombe
Wycombe
3/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 35Home Park
Big match
50%
Plymouth
model favours
50%22%29%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth50%
×Draw22%
Wycombe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.01
Wycombe
1.48

Plymouth creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.28
Wycombe
1.72

allows per match

Plymouth
1.25
Wycombe
1.74

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less
Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
71%
Plymouth or Wycombe
78%
Draw or Wycombe
50%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
29%
Wycombe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
87%
Plymouth 2+ goals
59%
Plymouth 3+ goals
32%
Wycombe 1+ goals
77%
Wycombe 2+ goals
43%
Wycombe 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
64%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.01

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Plymouth scores more
50%
level
22%
Wycombe scores more
29%

Plymouth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Wycombe win just 26% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Wycombe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Wycombe
Attack-heavy
50%Possession49%
69%Pass accuracy67%
13.1Shots12.4
2.12xGBiggest gap1.86
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthWycombe

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Plymouth
2
Draws
3
Wycombe
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 25%
1–11–01–01–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Wycombe
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth vs Wycombe — Match Preview

Plymouth face Wycombe on March 13, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plymouth host Wycombe at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.