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Plymouth vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
2/1/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plymouth35%
×Draw27%
West Brom38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.25
West Brom
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 40 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.28
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Plymouth
1.42
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Plymouth+0.39scores more
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
62%
Plymouth or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
65%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
15%
West Brom wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
71%
Plymouth 2+ goals
36%
Plymouth 3+ goals
13%
West Brom 1+ goals
73%
West Brom 2+ goals
37%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
48%
West Brom (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.28 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

West Brom attack 1.19 + Plymouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plymouth scores more
35%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
38%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plymouth vs West Brom

Plymouth beat West Brom 2-1 in Championship on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.