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Plymouth vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
C. Grant 29'
J. Vela 14'
9/26/2020League OneLeague One · Round 3Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Plymouth47%
×Draw26%
Shrewsbury27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.47
Shrewsbury
1.05

Plymouth creates 40% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 152 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.55
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Plymouth
1.24
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
73%
Plymouth or Shrewsbury
74%
Draw or Shrewsbury
53%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
23%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
77%
Plymouth 2+ goals
43%
Plymouth 3+ goals
18%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
65%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
28%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
63%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Plymouth scores more
47%
level
26%
Shrewsbury scores more
27%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. VelaShrewsburyShrewsbury · M
8.0

Match Events

14'
J. Vela↳ B. Walker
29'
Panutche Camará← L. MacLeod
29'
C. Grant↳ G. Cooper
56'
H. Burgoyne← M. Šarkić
62'
O. Norburn← S. High
66'
R. Hardie← D. Telford
70'
L. Clarke← D. Udoh
74'
Niall Canavan

Possession

50%Plymouth

Shots

12Plymouth

Pass accuracy

49%Plymouth

Statistics

PlymouthShrewsbury
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots9
4Corners3
11Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots9
7On Target2
2Off Target5
3Blocked2
9Inside Box1
3Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
425Total Passes418
299Accurate Passes303
70%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls17
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Shrewsbury

Plymouth and Shrewsbury drew 1-1 in League One on September 26, 2020.

Goals: J. Vela (14'), C. Grant (29').

Plymouth controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.