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Plymouth vs Reading — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
15:00
Reading
Reading
10/31/2026League OneLeague One · Round 14Home Park
53%
Plymouth
model favours
53%21%26%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Plymouth53%
×Draw21%
Reading26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.07
Reading
1.39

Plymouth creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.38
Reading
1.49

allows per match

Plymouth
1.28
Reading
1.76

finishing

Plymouth-0.60scores less
Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
74%
Plymouth or Reading
79%
Draw or Reading
47%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
31%
Reading wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
87%
Plymouth 2+ goals
61%
Plymouth 3+ goals
34%
Reading 1+ goals
75%
Reading 2+ goals
40%
Reading 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
67%
Reading (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.28 · 9 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.38 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.07

Reading attack 1.49 + Plymouth defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plymouth scores more
53%
level
21%
Reading scores more
26%

Plymouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Reading have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Reading
Balanced
49%Possession51%
69%Pass accuracy75%
13.5Shots11.8
2.16xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthReading

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Plymouth
1
Draws
3
Reading
Avg goals: 4.3BTTS: 75%
2–21–42–40–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Reading
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Plymouth vs Reading — Match Preview

Plymouth face Reading on October 31, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Plymouth host Reading at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.