Plymouth 2–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Port Vale

A. Pepple 47', 3'

C. Hall 14'

4/25/2026

League One · Round 45Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Plymouth55%

×Draw22%

Port Vale22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.14

Plymouth

1.92

Port Vale

1.14

Plymouth creates 68% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.28

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Port Vale

1.02

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Port Vale

1.57

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Port Vale-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

78%

Plymouth or Port Vale

78%

Draw or Port Vale

45%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

32%

Port Vale wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

85%

Plymouth 2+ goals

57%

Plymouth 3+ goals

30%

Port Vale 1+ goals

68%

Port Vale 2+ goals

32%

Port Vale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

71%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Port Vale defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.92

Port Vale attack 1.02 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Plymouth scores more

55%

level

22%

Port Vale scores more

22%

Plymouth at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Pepple

Plymouth · F

8.6

Match Events

3'

A. Pepple↳ L. Tolaj

5'

Conor Hazard

8'

L. Ashby-Hammond← C. Watts

14'

16'

25'

46'

47'

56'

56'

R. Walters← R. Croasdale

64'

Owen Dale

66'

M. Sorinola← R. Curtis

71'

G. Hall← E. Archer

73'

B. Wiredu← A. Pepple

80'

D. Brown← J. Headley

82'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthPort

Overview

27%Possession73%

16Total Shots15

2.00Expected Goals (xG)1.21

6Corners11

11Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots15

4On Target5

5Off Target1

7Blocked9

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box8

Passing

27%Possession73%

165Total Passes480

98Accurate Passes414

59%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0