Plymouth 3–0 Macclesfield: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Macclesfield

G. Cooper 77', 62'

R. Hardie 33'

3/7/2020

League Two · Round 37Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Plymouth62%

×Draw23%

Macclesfield16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchMacclesfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.78

Plymouth

1.81

Macclesfield

0.78

Plymouth creates 132% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

1.85

creates per match

0.72

0.85

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Plymouth

1.85

Macclesfield

0.72

allows per match

Plymouth

0.85

Macclesfield

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Macclesfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

84%

Plymouth or Macclesfield

77%

Draw or Macclesfield

38%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

36%

Macclesfield wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

54%

Plymouth 3+ goals

27%

Macclesfield 1+ goals

54%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

18%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

80%

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.85 + Macclesfield defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Macclesfield attack 0.72 + Plymouth defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Plymouth scores more

62%

level

23%

Macclesfield scores more

16%

Plymouth at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

G. Cooper

Plymouth · D

9.4

Match Events

14'

Connor Kirby

33'

R. Hardie↳ G. Cooper

62'

G. Cooper↳ D. Mayor

77'

B. Stephens← C. Kirby

77'

G. Cooper↳ D. Mayor

80'

D. Wilson← S. Tracey

83'

D. Telford← L. Jephcott

83'

J. Blyth← J. Ironside

86'

A. Randell← G. Cooper

88'

J. Cleal← B. Moore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthMacclesfield

Overview

59%Possession41%

26Total Shots9

13Corners4

5Fouls16

Shots

26Total Shots9

9On Target6

8Off Target1

9Blocked2

17Inside Box5

9Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

419Total Passes282

311Accurate Passes175

74%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1