Plymouth 1–4 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

A. Pepple 11'

R. One 90'

R. Hackett-Fairchild 65', 53'

F. Draper 38'

2/7/2026

League One · Round 31Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Plymouth47%

×Draw24%

Lincoln29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.33

Plymouth

1.74

Lincoln

1.33

Plymouth creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.28

creates per match

1.41

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Lincoln

1.41

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Lincoln

1.21

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Lincoln+0.45scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

71%

Plymouth or Lincoln

76%

Draw or Lincoln

53%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

25%

Lincoln wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

82%

Plymouth 2+ goals

52%

Plymouth 3+ goals

25%

Lincoln 1+ goals

74%

Lincoln 2+ goals

38%

Lincoln 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

62%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Lincoln defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lincoln attack 1.41 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Plymouth scores more

47%

level

24%

Lincoln scores more

29%

Plymouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Hackett-Fairchild

Lincoln · M

9.5

Match Events

8'

Wes Harding

11'

A. Pepple

14'

Ivan Varfolomeev

38'

F. Draper↳ R. Hackett-Fairchild

45'

O. Oseni← A. Pepple

46'

T. Bayliss← I. Varfolomeev

53'

58'

65'

66'

66'

73'

73'

79'

79'

J. Paterson← C. Watts

79'

H. Kane← B. Wiredu

84'

R. One← F. Draper

90+8'

Ben House

90+6'

Ryan One

90+2'

R. Towler← R. Hackett-Fairchild

90'

R. One↳ A. Lloyd

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthLincoln

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots12

0.66Expected Goals (xG)1.25

5Corners8

3Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target4

2Off Target2

5Blocked6

4Inside Box6

7Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

332Total Passes346

224Accurate Passes230

67%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1