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Plymouth vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
18:45
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
4/27/2027League OneLeague One · Round 44Home Park
Big match
58%
Plymouth
model favours
58%21%21%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth58%
×Draw21%
Leyton Orient21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
2.04
Leyton Orient
1.15

Plymouth creates 77% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.28
Leyton Orient
1.05

allows per match

Plymouth
1.25
Leyton Orient
1.81

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less
Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
79%
Plymouth or Leyton Orient
79%
Draw or Leyton Orient
42%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
35%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
87%
Plymouth 2+ goals
60%
Plymouth 3+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
68%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
32%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
73%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.04

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Plymouth scores more
58%
level
21%
Leyton Orient scores more
21%

Plymouth at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (72% and 80% over 2.5)
  • 80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Leyton Orient
Balanced
50%Possession52%
69%Pass accuracy71%
13.1Shots11.2
2.12xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Plymouth
0
Draws
3
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 40%
3–11–00–12–02–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plymouth host Leyton Orient

April 27, 2027: Plymouth take on Leyton Orient in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plymouth host Leyton Orient at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.