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Leyton Orient vs Plymouth — League #46 2026

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouthadvanced
L. Tolaj 90'
12/2/2025League #46League #46 · Round of 32Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Leyton Orient50%
×Draw28%
Plymouth23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.38
Plymouth
0.83

Leyton Orient creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
0.75
Plymouth
0.67

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.00
Plymouth
2.00

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
77%
Leyton Orient or Plymouth
72%
Draw or Plymouth
50%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
24%
Plymouth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
40%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%
Plymouth 1+ goals
56%
Plymouth 2+ goals
20%
Plymouth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
69%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 0.75 + Plymouth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Plymouth attack 0.67 + Leyton Orient defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
50%
level
28%
Plymouth scores more
23%

Leyton Orient at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. SimkinLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · G
7.9

Match Events

39'
Josh Koroma
46'
J. Simpson← O. Beckles
46'
C. Wellens← M. Craig
46'
A. Mitchell← J. Pleguezuelo
54'
Zech Obiero
64'
S. Perkins← A. Lloyd
64'
J. White← T. Archibald
71'
S. Clare← Z. Obiero
77'
M. Boateng← C. Roberts
77'
T. Finn← O. Oseni
90'
L. Tolaj

Possession

57%Leyton

Shots

11Leyton

Pass accuracy

52%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonPlymouth
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots16
9Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots16
2On Target5
6Off Target6
3Blocked5
5Inside Box12
6Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
444Total Passes338
357Accurate Passes246
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

League #46: Leyton Orient 0–1 Plymouth

Plymouth beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League #46 on December 2, 2025.

Goals: L. Tolaj (90').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.