Plymouth 2–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

D. Telford 62'

C. McFadzean 59'

8/13/2019

League #48 · 1st RoundHome Park (Plymouth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plymouth57%

×Draw24%

Leyton Orient20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.92

Plymouth

1.75

Leyton Orient

0.92

Plymouth creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Plymouth

1.50

Leyton Orient

0.33

allows per match

Plymouth

1.50

Leyton Orient

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

80%

Plymouth or Leyton Orient

76%

Draw or Leyton Orient

43%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

32%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth 2+ goals

52%

Plymouth 3+ goals

25%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

60%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

23%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

74%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.50 + Leyton Orient defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Leyton Orient attack 0.33 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plymouth scores more

57%

level

24%

Leyton Orient scores more

20%

Plymouth at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

C. McFadzean↳ R. Taylor

61'

J. Baxter← J. Edwards

61'

B. Moore← R. Taylor

62'

D. Telford

68'

C. Wilkinson← L. Dennis

69'

J. Brophy← D. Gorman

74'

A. Randell← D. Mayor

Plymouth

Leyton

1

6

3

5

14

15

44

8

4

▼

Gorman

17

▼

19

1

3

8

▼

6

2

25

10

▼

Mayor

15

Grant

11

⚽

Telford

9

A

▼

Taylor

21

⚽

McFadzean

Manager: R. Lowe

61'▲J. Baxter←▼J. Edwards

61'▲B. Moore←▼R. Taylor

74'▲A. Randell←▼D. Mayor

Plymouth substitutes

14Baxter17Moore20Randell19Lolos5Wootton7Sarcevic24Palmer

Manager: R. Embleton

68'▲C. Wilkinson←▼L. Dennis

69'▲J. Brophy←▼D. Gorman

Leyton Orient substitutes

9Wilkinson16Brophy18Harrold2Ling10Maguire-Drew27Alabi12Sargeant