Plymouth 2–0 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Forest Green

B. Mumba 47'

J. Bolton 7'

3/18/2023

League One · Round 37Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Plymouth57%

×Draw23%

Forest Green20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.97

Plymouth

1.79

Forest Green

0.97

Plymouth creates 85% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 23 away

1.55

creates per match

0.70

1.24

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Forest Green

0.70

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Forest Green

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

80%

Plymouth or Forest Green

77%

Draw or Forest Green

43%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

32%

Forest Green wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

83%

Plymouth 2+ goals

53%

Plymouth 3+ goals

26%

Forest Green 1+ goals

62%

Forest Green 2+ goals

25%

Forest Green 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

74%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Plymouth scores more

57%

level

23%

Forest Green scores more

20%

Plymouth at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Bolton

Plymouth · D

8.5

Match Events

7'

J. Bolton↳ J. Houghton

46'

C. Wright← J. Edwards

47'

B. Mumba↳ J. Wilson

59'

J. Garrick← C. Savage

60'

Corey O'Keeffe

70'

B. Waine← N. Ennis

70'

J. Matete← J. Houghton

78'

T. Omotoye← D. McGeouch

86'

R. Hardie← D. Mayor

86'

A. Bakayoko← C. OKeeffe

86'

S. O'Brien← K. McAllister

89'

S. Earley← B. Mumba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthForest

Overview

73%Possession27%

8Total Shots5

6Corners2

8Fouls3

Shots

8Total Shots5

2On Target1

1Off Target2

5Blocked2

6Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

73%Possession27%

815Total Passes289

707Accurate Passes195

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls3

0Yellow Cards1