Plymouth 2–2 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Exeter City

M. Boateng 90'

L. Tolaj 79'

J. Wareham 87'

R. Cole 47'

4/11/2026

League One · Round 43Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth60%

×Draw20%

Exeter City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.14

Plymouth

2.15

Exeter City

1.14

Plymouth creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

2.28

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Exeter City

1.02

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Exeter City

2.03

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Exeter City+0.08on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

81%

Plymouth or Exeter City

80%

Draw or Exeter City

40%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

37%

Exeter City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

88%

Plymouth 2+ goals

63%

Plymouth 3+ goals

36%

Exeter City 1+ goals

68%

Exeter City 2+ goals

32%

Exeter City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

76%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.03 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Exeter City defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.15

Exeter City attack 1.02 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Plymouth scores more

60%

level

20%

Exeter City scores more

19%

Plymouth at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

O. Dale

Plymouth · M

8.7

Match Events

15'

Joe Edwards

47'

R. Cole↳ I. Niskanen

56'

X. Amaechi← O. Oseni

57'

C. Watts← J. Paterson

62'

62'

63'

66'

67'

J. Magennis← K. McDonald

67'

R. Rydel← C. Mendes

74'

Ilmari Niskanen

77'

J. Aitchison← R. Cole

79'

L. Tolaj

80'

J. MacKenzie← J. Edwards

87'

J. Wareham↳ I. Niskanen

90'

M. Boateng

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthExeter

Overview

57%Possession43%

20Total Shots5

4.75Expected Goals (xG)1.06

12Corners2

8Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots5

10On Target2

6Off Target3

4Blocked1

17Inside Box5

3Outside Box0

Passing

57%Possession43%

307Total Passes245

185Accurate Passes126

60%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2