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Plymouth vs Bradford — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
14:00
Bradford
Bradford
8/29/2026League OneLeague One · Round 3Home Park
Big match
54%
Plymouth
model favours
54%22%24%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Plymouth54%
×Draw22%
Bradford24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.90
Bradford
1.19

Plymouth creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Plymouth
2.38
Bradford
1.10

allows per match

Plymouth
1.28
Bradford
1.41

finishing

Plymouth-0.60scores less
Bradford-0.10scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
76%
Plymouth or Bradford
78%
Draw or Bradford
46%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
31%
Bradford wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
85%
Plymouth 2+ goals
56%
Plymouth 3+ goals
29%
Bradford 1+ goals
70%
Bradford 2+ goals
33%
Bradford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
69%
Bradford (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.28 · 9 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.38 + Bradford defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bradford attack 1.10 + Plymouth defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Plymouth scores more
54%
level
22%
Bradford scores more
24%

Plymouth at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Style contrast — Plymouth play Attack-heavy, Bradford Defensively solid
  • 72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Plymouth fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Bradford
Defensively solid
49%Possession50%
68%Pass accuracy66%
13.5Shots12.4
2.16xGBiggest gap1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthBradford

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Plymouth
3
Draws
2
Bradford
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 67%
1–10–11–22–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWWW
Bradford
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plymouth host Bradford

August 29, 2026: Plymouth take on Bradford in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plymouth host Bradford at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.