Plymouth 2–1 Bradford: Result & Stats | League Two

Plymouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Bradford

J. Edwards 25'

B. Moore 5'

N. Canavan 51' (OG)

11/23/2019

League Two · Round 19Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Plymouth50%

×Draw26%

Bradford25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

Plymouth

1.54

Bradford

1.00

Plymouth creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 139 away

1.85

creates per match

1.15

0.85

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Plymouth

1.85

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Plymouth

0.85

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

75%

Plymouth or Bradford

74%

Draw or Bradford

50%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

26%

Bradford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

79%

Plymouth 2+ goals

45%

Plymouth 3+ goals

20%

Bradford 1+ goals

63%

Bradford 2+ goals

26%

Bradford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

67%

Bradford (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.85 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bradford attack 1.15 + Plymouth defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Plymouth scores more

50%

level

26%

Bradford scores more

25%

Plymouth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Vaughan

Bradford · F

8.0

Match Events

5'

B. Moore

23'

Callum Cooke

25'

J. Edwards↳ Joel Grant

46'

Z. Ismail← A. Oteh

46'

K. Mellor← C. Cooke

51'

N. CanavanOwn goal

55'

Callum McFadzean

64'

D. Devine← H. Akpan

70'

D. Telford← B. Moore

84'

R. Taylor← Joel Grant

85'

Danny Mayor

90'

Alex Palmer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthBradford

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots9

12Corners1

13Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

7On Target2

2Off Target7

4Blocked0

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

356Total Passes321

243Accurate Passes211

68%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3