Plymouth 3–3 Bradford: Result & Stats | League One

Plymouth

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bradford

F. Ladapo 74', 12'

J. Grant 50'

G. Miller 53'

J. Payne 18', 4'

12/8/2018

League One · Round 21Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Plymouth53%

×Draw23%

Bradford24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.16

Plymouth

1.82

Bradford

1.16

Plymouth creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.28

creates per match

1.07

1.25

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Plymouth

2.28

Bradford

1.07

allows per match

Plymouth

1.25

Bradford

1.36

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Plymouth-0.58scores less

Bradford-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

76%

Plymouth or Bradford

77%

Draw or Bradford

47%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

30%

Bradford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

54%

Plymouth 3+ goals

27%

Bradford 1+ goals

69%

Bradford 2+ goals

32%

Bradford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

68%

Bradford (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 2.28 + Bradford defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Bradford attack 1.07 + Plymouth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Plymouth scores more

53%

level

23%

Bradford scores more

24%

Plymouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

12'

18'

23'

50'

53'

61'

64'

66'

R. Taylor← R. Edwards

69'

J. O'Brien← E. Doyle

74'

F. Ladapo

77'

Ruben Lameiras← J. Grant

81'

H. Akpan← K. Henry

87'

L. Colville← J. Payne

88'

Antoni Sarcevic

90'

David Ball

90'

Hope Akpan

Plymouth

Bradford

1

38

3

6

48

▼

Henry

15

Mellor

10

⚽2

▼

Payne

39

O'Brien

9

A

▼

Doyle

40

Ball

12

⚽A

1

14

2

4

5

▼

Edwards

23

Smith-Bro

16

⚽

▼

Grant

8

Fox

10

A

Carey

7

Sarcevic

19

⚽2

Ladapo

Manager: D. Adams

66'▲R. Taylor←▼R. Edwards

77'▲Ruben Lameiras←▼J. Grant

Plymouth substitutes

9Taylor11Lameiras3Sawyer20Wylde21Letheren24Grant42Purrington

Manager: D. Hopkin

69'▲J. O'Brien←▼E. Doyle

81'▲H. Akpan←▼K. Henry

87'▲L. Colville←▼J. Payne

Bradford substitutes

5O'Brien21Akpan36Colville4McGowan13Wilson18Brünker24Devine

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Bradford

Plymouth and Bradford drew 3-3 in League One on December 8, 2018.

Goals: J. Payne (4', 18'), F. Ladapo (12', 74'), J. Grant (50'), G. Miller (53').

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.

Plymouth vs Bradford — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Bradford