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Plymouth vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
9/2/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plymouth39%
×Draw27%
Blackburn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.33
Blackburn
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.28
Blackburn
1.09

allows per match

Plymouth
1.42
Blackburn
1.37

finishing

Plymouth+0.39scores more
Blackburn+0.05on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
65%
Plymouth or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
61%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
17%
Blackburn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
74%
Plymouth 2+ goals
38%
Plymouth 3+ goals
15%
Blackburn 1+ goals
71%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
53%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.28 + Blackburn defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Blackburn attack 1.09 + Plymouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Plymouth scores more
39%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
35%

Plymouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Plymouth 3–0 Blackburn

Plymouth beat Blackburn 3-0 in Championship on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.