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Plymouth vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Birmingham
Birmingham
12/23/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Plymouth38%
×Draw28%
Birmingham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.21
Birmingham
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.28
Birmingham
0.81

allows per match

Plymouth
1.42
Birmingham
1.13

finishing

Plymouth+0.39scores more
Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
67%
Plymouth or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
62%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
16%
Birmingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
70%
Plymouth 2+ goals
34%
Plymouth 3+ goals
12%
Birmingham 1+ goals
67%
Birmingham 2+ goals
30%
Birmingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
53%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.42 · 6 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.28 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Birmingham attack 0.81 + Plymouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plymouth scores more
38%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
33%

Plymouth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plymouth vs Birmingham

Plymouth and Birmingham drew 3-3 in Championship on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.