Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Plymouth vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Plymouth
Plymouth
Preview
14:00
Barnsley
Barnsley
9/12/2026League OneLeague One · Round 6Home Park
Big match
38%
Barnsley
model favours
37%25%38%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Plymouth37%
×Draw25%
Barnsley38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plymouth
1.42
Barnsley
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 118 away

creates per match

Plymouth
1.53
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Plymouth
1.26
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw
62%
Plymouth or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
63%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+
17%
Barnsley wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals
76%
Plymouth 2+ goals
41%
Plymouth 3+ goals
17%
Barnsley 1+ goals
76%
Barnsley 2+ goals
42%
Barnsley 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)
50%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.26 · 115 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.53 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Plymouth defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Plymouth scores more
37%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
38%

Barnsley at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Plymouth have scored in 13 games running
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 91% over 2.5)
  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Plymouth have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
Barnsley
Balanced
48%Possession52%
68%Pass accuracy74%
14.0Shots13.1
2.31xGBiggest gap1.48
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PlymouthBarnsley

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Plymouth
1
Draws
3
Barnsley
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 33%
3–01–30–31–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Plymouth
WWWDW
Barnsley
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Plymouth host Barnsley

September 12, 2026: Plymouth take on Barnsley in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Plymouth host Barnsley at Home Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.