Barnsley 0–3 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Barnsley

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

O. Oseni 79' (pen), 16'

L. Tolaj 57'

4/6/2026

League One · Round 42Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Barnsley29%

×Draw23%

Plymouth48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.83

Barnsley

1.37

Plymouth

1.83

Plymouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.52

creates per match

2.00

1.66

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Barnsley

1.52

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Barnsley

1.66

Plymouth

1.22

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Barnsley+0.68scores more

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

52%

Barnsley or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

71%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

13%

Plymouth wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

75%

Barnsley 2+ goals

40%

Barnsley 3+ goals

16%

Plymouth 1+ goals

84%

Plymouth 2+ goals

54%

Plymouth 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

37%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.66 · 10 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.52 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Barnsley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barnsley scores more

29%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

48%

Plymouth at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Hazard

Plymouth · G

7.6

Match Events

10'

Mathias Ross

16'

O. Oseni

46'

A. Phillips← T. Bradshaw

57'

L. Tolaj

64'

C. Watts← L. Tolaj

65'

C. Roberts← J. Paterson

67'

S. Banks← J. Bland

77'

L. Farrell← V. Yoganathan

78'

Jack Shepherd

79'

O. OseniPenalty

81'

X. Amaechi← O. Oseni

85'

B. Galloway← J. Edwards

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyPlymouth

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots15

1.18Expected Goals (xG)3.42

4Corners8

11Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots15

1On Target8

6Off Target2

4Blocked5

5Inside Box12

6Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

434Total Passes259

337Accurate Passes159

78%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1