Plymouth 3–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

R. Hardie 90+3'

S. Cosgrove 63'

N. Ennis 24'

10/8/2022

League One · Round 14Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Plymouth49%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Plymouth

1.61

Accrington ST

1.10

Plymouth creates 46% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 107 away

1.55

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Accrington ST

0.96

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Accrington ST

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

74%

Plymouth or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

51%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

26%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

80%

Plymouth 2+ goals

48%

Plymouth 3+ goals

22%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

67%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

30%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

65%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Plymouth scores more

49%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

26%

Plymouth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Houghton

Plymouth · M

7.9

Match Events

1'

24'

33'

38'

38'

39'

39'

45+3'

46'

A. Randell← M. Butcher

56'

Shaun Whalley

60'

J. Pritchard← S. Whalley

63'

S. Cosgrove↳ N. Lonwijk

67'

Niall Ennis

67'

F. Azaz← M. Whittaker

74'

R. Hardie← N. Ennis

77'

N. Delfouneso← T. Leigh

90+2'

Brendan Galloway

90+3'

R. Hardie↳ A. Randell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthAccrington

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots13

4Corners5

15Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target3

4Off Target4

5Blocked6

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

341Total Passes353

232Accurate Passes248

68%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

1Offsides8