Plymouth Argyle W 4–2 Stoneham: Result & Stats

Plymouth Argyle W

4 – 2

Stoneham

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundCoach Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Plymouth Argyle W50%

×Draw18%

Stoneham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plymouth Argyle WExpected goals in this matchStoneham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

2.21

Plymouth Argyle W

2.80

Stoneham

2.21

Plymouth Argyle W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

4.27

creates per match

2.33

2.09

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Plymouth Argyle W

4.27

Stoneham

2.33

allows per match

Plymouth Argyle W

2.09

Stoneham

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Stoneham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth Argyle W ↓

Stoneham →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Plymouth Argyle W or draw

69%

Plymouth Argyle W or Stoneham

82%

Draw or Stoneham

50%

Winning margin

Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+

32%

Stoneham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals

94%

Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals

76%

Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals

52%

Stoneham 1+ goals

89%

Stoneham 2+ goals

65%

Stoneham 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)

62%

Stoneham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plymouth Argyle W at home — creates 4.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Stoneham away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth Argyle W attack 4.27 + Stoneham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.80

Stoneham attack 2.33 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Plymouth Argyle W scores more

50%

level

18%

Stoneham scores more

31%

Plymouth Argyle W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Plymouth Argyle W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff